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The Statistics Of Helicopter Crew Fatalities

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This paper is dedicated to EMS helicopter crashes. 

 

 

https://www.annemergmed.com/article/S0196-0644(06)02058-0/pdf

 

"The probability of surviving the hypothetical 20-year career is 0.999982 to the 20,800th power (205220) or 0.68869%. The fatality rate is 10.6880.312 or 31%"

 

Has anyone found the current percentage chance of dying as a commercial helicopter pilot in Canada? 

 

Fly safe everyone. Don't let this tough year lower your standards.

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http://www.ushst.org/Portals/0/USHST Safety Report 20200406.pdf

 

2016-2020 average of 0.67 fatal helicopter accidents per 100,000 hours from the ushst 

using the formula from the first post 

100,000- 0.67 = 99,999.33

99,999.33/ 100,000 = 0.9999933 ( the probability of one flight hour being fatality free ) 

0.9999933 to the 20,800 power (20x52x20) = 87 percent chance of 20 years at 20 hours of flying a week being fatality free

 

2016-2020 average accident rate of 3.77 per 100,000 hours from the ushst 

100,000 - 3.77 = 99,996.23 

99,996.23/ 100,000 = 0.9999623( the probability of one flight hour being ACCIDENT free )

0.9999623 to the 20,800 power (20x52x20) = 46 percent chance of 20 years of 20 hours of flying a week being accident free 

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I have no idea how many hours an EMS pilot would fly. If you use 520 hours for 40  years you get the same numbers.  I cant find Canadian commercial helicopter accidents broken down per 100,000 hours anywhere. 

 

The 2016 estimate of flying activity is 4,301,000 hours, and the accident rate for Canadian-registered aircraft was 4.5 accidents per 100 000 flying hours.

This number mixes all of  the airplanes/helicopters,  private pilots and students with the commercial operators, so its not really accurate if you use it in the formula. 

 

If anyone can find the accident rate for Canadian commercial helicopter operators that would be very interesting. 

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oh good for you. 

 

ok so 100,000 - 4.5 = 99,995.5

99,995.5/100,000 = 0.999955

250/52 = 4.8 

4.8 x 52 x 40 = 9,984

0.999955 to the power of 9984 = 64 percent chance of 40 years of 250 hours per year being accident free using the general Canadian aviation accident rate (2016)

Obviously skill, knowledge, experience, talented AME, good equipment/training, the type of flying you do - and some luck, will affect which side of those odds you sit on. If someone had the commercial helicopter statistics it would be a very clear way to view your potential risk at work. You would think the TSB or Transport would have it broken down into specific categories somewhere. Insurance companies figure it out somehow.

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I had someone tell me once that helicopter pilots don't get paid the big bucks to fly around all day, we get paid for our ability to deal with the aircraft when something goes wrong. Looking at this it seems to me that we get paid for having the skill to keep that aircraft in the 64 percent club all day - with the possibility of having to deal with paying the dues of joining the 36 percent club.

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8 hours ago, Dukenukem said:

I had someone tell me once that helicopter pilots don't get paid the big bucks to fly around all day, we get paid for our ability to deal with the aircraft when something goes wrong. Looking at this it seems to me that we get paid for having the skill to keep that aircraft in the 64 percent club all day - with the possibility of having to deal with paying the dues of joining the 36 percent club.

I’m still waiting for the big bucks. 

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Well it is still the third most dangerous job in the world. It is also more high skilled then the first and second most dangerous job. lets say you fly that 250 hours a year. unless you are flying a R22, your company is probably billing you out at a minimum of what? $1000 an hour? so you bring in $250,000 for that company before expenses. what is a fair amount to keep for taking all the risk? you cant really determine a fair wage if you don't even know what risk you are taking. You cant determine how skilled you are either.

  • Haha 1

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