Economic Outlook

[xrkyle]

How do you guys see things playing out for the helicopter industry in Canada over the next 2 or 3 years? Continued expansion? A flattening or maybe (gasp) a correction?. The US is going balls first into a recession which has always had a direct impact on our economy since we're so tightly coupled in so many ways, from housing to raw materials to agriculture to financials.

 

Maybe we'll see operators supporting oil and gas continue to grow despite weakening demand from the US? After all, India is making $2500 cars and economists are predicting $150 barrel oil for 2008. OPEC keeps talking about reducing output making the tar sands look more and more viable. But then Stelmach is in Washington trying to convince congress that their new policy on self reliant oil sources includes Alberta.

 

Forestry is getting hammered with mill closures announced weekly across the country. But then again how much of the industry that helicopters support has their output go to mills instead of export to the Asian markets?

 

Overseas demand for metals continues but then there are operations like Galore Creek that can't seem to get started (and stay that way). NovaGold and Teck Cominco brought in a new project manager this week so who knows?

 

Then there is the gray tsunami as one fellow I know puts it. Will that be enough to keep the younger pilots end engineers employed through a downturn? Will they have the expertise to move into these vacancies?

[as350]

How do you guys see things playing out for the helicopter industry in Canada over the next 2 or 3 years? Continued expansion? A flattening or maybe (gasp) a correction?. The US is going balls first into a recession which has always had a direct impact on our economy since we're so tightly coupled in so many ways, from housing to raw materials to agriculture to financials.

 

Maybe we'll see operators supporting oil and gas continue to grow despite weakening demand from the US? After all, India is making $2500 cars and economists are predicting $150 barrel oil for 2008. OPEC keeps talking about reducing output making the tar sands look more and more viable. But then Stelmach is in Washington trying to convince congress that their new policy on self reliant oil sources includes Alberta.

 

Forestry is getting hammered with mill closures announced weekly across the country. But then again how much of the industry that helicopters support has their output go to mills instead of export to the Asian markets?

 

Overseas demand for metals continues but then there are operations like Galore Creek that can't seem to get started (and stay that way). NovaGold and Teck Cominco brought in a new project manager this week so who knows?

 

Then there is the gray tsunami as one fellow I know puts it. Will that be enough to keep the younger pilots end engineers employed through a downturn? Will they have the expertise to move into these vacancies?

[as350]

How do you guys see things playing out for the helicopter industry in Canada over the next 2 or 3 years? Continued expansion? A flattening or maybe (gasp) a correction?. The US is going balls first into a recession which has always had a direct impact on our economy since we're so tightly coupled in so many ways, from housing to raw materials to agriculture to financials.

 

Maybe we'll see operators supporting oil and gas continue to grow despite weakening demand from the US? After all, India is making $2500 cars and economists are predicting $150 barrel oil for 2008. OPEC keeps talking about reducing output making the tar sands look more and more viable. But then Stelmach is in Washington trying to convince congress that their new policy on self reliant oil sources includes Alberta.

 

Forestry is getting hammered with mill closures announced weekly across the country. But then again how much of the industry that helicopters support has their output go to mills instead of export to the Asian markets?

 

Overseas demand for metals continues but then there are operations like Galore Creek that can't seem to get started (and stay that way). NovaGold and Teck Cominco brought in a new project manager this week so who knows?

 

 

I wouldn't worry too much about what's happening south too much. You have asked a lot of questions and i will address them properly. First off the the price of gold is 900/oz because of the inverse relatioinship with the US $ the Galore project was not researched properly and as such was deemed a no go. everybody is looking for uranium because oil is a 100/ barrel, as far as pilot and eng. positions goes we will be flying for the next 5-10 yrs. solid

[deuce bigalow]

How do you guys see things playing out for the helicopter industry in Canada over the next 2 or 3 years? Continued expansion? A flattening or maybe (gasp) a correction?. The US is going balls first into a recession which has always had a direct impact on our economy since we're so tightly coupled in so many ways, from housing to raw materials to agriculture to financials.

 

Maybe we'll see operators supporting oil and gas continue to grow despite weakening demand from the US? After all, India is making $2500 cars and economists are predicting $150 barrel oil for 2008. OPEC keeps talking about reducing output making the tar sands look more and more viable. But then Stelmach is in Washington trying to convince congress that their new policy on self reliant oil sources includes Alberta.

 

Forestry is getting hammered with mill closures announced weekly across the country. But then again how much of the industry that helicopters support has their output go to mills instead of export to the Asian markets?

 

Overseas demand for metals continues but then there are operations like Galore Creek that can't seem to get started (and stay that way). NovaGold and Teck Cominco brought in a new project manager this week so who knows?

 

Then there is the gray tsunami as one fellow I know puts it. Will that be enough to keep the younger pilots end engineers employed through a downturn? Will they have the expertise to move into these vacancies?

 

 

The Grey Tsunami is the number one factor. Take a look around any ready room. Lotsa guys with only a few years left until golf time. any slowdown in the industry will be welcomed by the companies to give them some wiggle room before the salaries go through the roof.

 

You could not have picked a better time in the history of aviation to start a flying career.

[Phil Croucher]

I couldn't agree more - it's going to take a long time to replace those guys, or rather for their replacements to gain the proper experience

 

phil

[vortex]

I do think there may be less growth in the next couple of years than we have seen in the past couple for several reasons. There is no way to avoid having a down turn in the American economy not effect us to some extent(if it happens). With seismic in Alberta slower it must trickle down and around everywhere. Less mediums moving drills means less intermediates slinging bags, less flying line cutters etc., etc. Those machines are now available for fires, mining etc. Gold and uranium can be at record highs but if the stock market continues like last week the juniors will not have as much financing for projects. Logging is not really growing right now unless someone finds an undiscovered valley of cedar and fir is at a low point not seen in years. Hmm...my guess is that we must be careful now. I do agree we are in the middle of an booming era that has never been seen before for helicopter jobs in Canada. I'll get off my soap box now.

[Rotorboy2]

I have to agree with Vortex for the most-part.

 

The downturn in the US economy will affect Canada to some degree. We're so closely tied and most of our exports go to the US. If uranium, gold and other metals stay high (and they likely will as investors typically dump stocks in favour of gold and such in times like these) then the industry as a whole shouldn't suffer too badly.

 

If seismic is slower this year than last, then I think that is only temporary. If the price of oil stay high then seismic will as well.

 

Of course, if fires are down this year (and last year was no screaming ****, right?) then some operators could hurt a bit this year.

 

None-the-less, I'm not making any radical changes this year in search of a better dollar... this year could shake things up a bit.

 

But I'd be very happy to be wrong!

[Helilog56]

Well, let me consult my crystal ball

I'm not so convinced of a slow down. Gold ( and other precious metals) are strong, the quest for oil/gas shows little signs of letting up, even our west coast lumber market is exporting more and more to Asian markets.

 

I see more canadian operators diversifying and or growing in the overseas markets (again, oil driven). New helicopter sales have never been stronger, just ask manufacturers.

 

It has become a more "global" economy......Canada still has close ties to the U.S., but also has expanded into that arena, we are a bit more sheltered from a U.S. recession.

 

I believe we will see little effect within our industry for the next few years.

[Elvis]

With the high Canadian $ now is the time to get the down payments made on new A/C

[Guest Angry Egg Driver]

Well, let me consult my crystal ball

I'm not so convinced of a slow down. Gold ( and other precious metals) are strong, the quest for oil/gas shows little signs of letting up, even our west coast lumber market is exporting more and more to Asian markets.

 

I see more canadian operators diversifying and or growing in the overseas markets (again, oil driven). New helicopter sales have never been stronger, just ask manufacturers.

 

It has become a more "global" economy......Canada still has close ties to the U.S., but also has expanded into that arena, we are a bit more sheltered from a U.S. recession.

 

I believe we will see little effect within our industry for the next few years.

 

Still feel the same about the helicopter business not feeling the effects of the global downturn?I would have said the same thing back in Jan.....how a few months changes the scope our thinking.